Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.