‘The Situation is Dire’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly a significant distance away are now being felt in India's kitchens.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, supplies of cooking gas are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a official of the an industry group.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are switching to coal and wood and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, media reports say up to a 20% of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have shrunk with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers note a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the government maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and officials say supplies are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

About 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the conflict.

The oil ministry says that it instructed refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and accumulation has been caused by false reports. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be exaggerated.

India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around a significant portion of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through diversification. Fuel availability remains relatively comfortable. Kitchen fuel stocks is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Distributors are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.